Observando a Iberoamérica

  There is a significant risk of social explosion in Ecuador in the next two years, regardless of who wins the presidency. The combination of an unprecedented security crisis (homicide rate of 39 per 100,000 in 2024), economic inequality, youth unemployment (15–24-year-olds with 11% unemployment according to INEC), and distrust of institutions (Congress with 10% approval rating) creates a breeding ground for discontent. The militarization of security under Noboa and Correa's history of polarization under Gonzalez could exacerbate latent tensions. However, the risk is not imminent unless specific catalysts are present, and its likelihood varies depending on the winner. Should Daniel Noboa win, the risk is greater in the medium term (2026-2027), if his ‘mano dura’ approach to crime continues to prioritise repression over social solutions. His policy has reduced violence (homicides fell from 47.2 to 39 per 100,000 between 2023 and 2024), but cases such as the murder of four minors i...

  The Trump administration's economic policies are generating uncertainty in global markets, especially in the dominance of the dollar. While a weaker dollar could benefit US manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit, it could also boost inflation and make rate cuts by the Federal Reserve more difficult. At the same time, increased military spending and fiscal easing in Europe have strengthened the euro, altering global monetary dynamics.   The intensifying US trade war has had significant economic effects, with rising tariffs and increased uncertainty affecting US growth. In contrast, optimism about the European economy has boosted eurozone stocks and bonds, contributing to the dollar's depreciation against the euro. However, the effectiveness of these policies remains in question, as the growing US budget deficit could keep Treasury yields high, putting upward pressure on the dollar.   Economic projections reflect more moderate growth in the United States and the...

  Evelyn Matthei has to deal with the challenge of strengthening her position as leader of the Chilean right-wing. At the same time, Johannes Kaiser is gaining support because of his radical and disruptive message. Although Matthei would be better able to win an eventual second round against the left, she must first beat Kaiser and José Antonio Kast in the first round. Kaiser has a lot of support from people who want big changes in Chile, especially when it comes to free markets and order. Matthei is seen as a moderate who likes to find common ground. However, she is not as popular as Sebastián Piñera and does not have as much money, so she needs to make people think that she is the right person to represent the traditional right.   Johannes Kaiser has become more popular because of his right-wing views. He is against immigration, believes in smaller government and supports gun ownership. He became more popular after the constitutional process launched in 2019 failed, as it ...

  Since Trump became president, everything has become more uncertain. But the world and the region have already realized that the best plan is to wait and see what happens. Latin America is starting to move away from the US and towards China and Russia. The EU is finding it hard to move closer together because of the influence of these two Eurasian powers, but cultural links and people's dislike of Trump's policies might help to reduce this sense of estrangement. Now is a good time to reach out to the region, but in the end, managers of investments and finances focus on the fundamentals. Many changes are happening: 1) The 'Trumpist authoritarian contagion' (something similar to the 'Bukelist contagion') is spreading, and Putin is taking advantage of this to weaken elites by making Trump the new alpha male in the region, 2) the halting of the flow of migrants northwards and the restructuring of transnational criminal gangs to deal with new challenges, 3) chan...

  Brasil mantiene una postura pragmática ante las amenazas arancelarias de Trump. El gobierno de Lula, con Fernando Haddad y Geraldo Alckmin al frente del equipo económico, prefiere esperar a que las medidas se implementen antes de reaccionar, destacando que la balanza comercial favorece a Estados Unidos, con importaciones brasileñas de $38 mil millones frente a exportaciones de $36.9 mil millones en 2023. El etanol brasileño, exportado principalmente a California por sus bajas emisiones, sería uno de los productos más afectados por potenciales aranceles. Actualmente, EE.UU. impone un arancel de solo 2.5% sobre el etanol brasileño, mientras Brasil aplica uno del 18% a las importaciones estadounidenses. Esta asimetría es precisamente lo que Trump cuestiona, aunque el impacto real sería limitado ya que Brasil exporta menos del 1% de su producción de etanol a EE.UU. Otros productos brasileños vulnerables incluyen el mineral de hierro, acero, carne, café y preparaciones alimenticia...

  A trade war, or even a bluff, makes things uncertain, stops investments and affects the region's growth. On the one hand, a typical bluff/bravado of a pampered NYC real estate entrepreneur or on the other hand a tactic of a larger strategy of dismantling the liberal order. However you interpret it, Trump is here to do harm and it is not an ideological trench position, as there is ample historical evidence that such breakaway leaderships, born out of fear of loss of power as well as those who want their space (Thucydides' Trap), often generate more trauma than benefits to the international order and even to the economies and societies under their jurisdiction. To some extent, it has not been surprising, but it always generates a minimum of panic to see the devil arrive and the region responds in the three logical ways one usually responds to these challenges: 1) freeze, do not breathe (Brazil), 2) make a gesture of dignity and then freeze and/or retreat (Colombia and Mexico ...