The Trumpian cognitive labyrinth in Latin America

 


Since Trump became president, everything has become more uncertain. But the world and the region have already realized that the best plan is to wait and see what happens.

Latin America is starting to move away from the US and towards China and Russia. The EU is finding it hard to move closer together because of the influence of these two Eurasian powers, but cultural links and people's dislike of Trump's policies might help to reduce this sense of estrangement.

Now is a good time to reach out to the region, but in the end, managers of investments and finances focus on the fundamentals. Many changes are happening: 1) The 'Trumpist authoritarian contagion' (something similar to the 'Bukelist contagion') is spreading, and Putin is taking advantage of this to weaken elites by making Trump the new alpha male in the region, 2) the halting of the flow of migrants northwards and the restructuring of transnational criminal gangs to deal with new challenges, 3) changes in south-south trade, left-wing rulers look elsewhere and find the BRICS as an alternative to American exports.

There are no major clashes on the horizon, but tensions are rising between Mexico (which only moves on tariffs), Brazil, Colombia, Panama and Peru, Uruguay, Chile and the United States. They are all against Trump's continued offence (Trump's mistake of verbally attacking the region with only Argentina and perhaps El Salvador as allies). Through Argentina and Bolsonaro's instigation, a clash within Mercosur is also brewing. The global impact of Trump's measures on the dollar and Argentine exports will be key. If they are strong, it could help Milei see reason and not fight with his main and safe partners. The region enjoys its geopolitical and geo-economic irrelevance, but also suffers from uncertainty. If this continues, countries in the region may move closer to the Eurasian powers and depend on the EU to deal with Russian political influence and work closely with China in the face of Trump's aggressive behavior.

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