Challenges for Chile's Right and Opportunities for the Left

 

Evelyn Matthei has to deal with the challenge of strengthening her position as leader of the Chilean right-wing. At the same time, Johannes Kaiser is gaining support because of his radical and disruptive message. Although Matthei would be better able to win an eventual second round against the left, she must first beat Kaiser and José Antonio Kast in the first round. Kaiser has a lot of support from people who want big changes in Chile, especially when it comes to free markets and order. Matthei is seen as a moderate who likes to find common ground. However, she is not as popular as Sebastián Piñera and does not have as much money, so she needs to make people think that she is the right person to represent the traditional right. 

Johannes Kaiser has become more popular because of his right-wing views. He is against immigration, believes in smaller government and supports gun ownership. He became more popular after the constitutional process launched in 2019 failed, as it made people unhappy with traditional politics. He set up the Libertarian National Party in 2024 and has become the main figure on the more radical right, attracting young people who don't vote and using social media to do so. But he doesn't have much experience in administration, and he often offers simple solutions that make it seem like he can't govern. 

Kaiser has refused to compete in the first round of voting with Matthei and Chile Vamos. He says they are working with Boric on his pension reforms and are too left-wing. Instead, he could face Kast in a primary of his own, where he is currently leading in the polls. If he manages to get his candidacy going, Chile could have a presidential election with three groups: Matthei for the traditional right, Carolina Tohá for the left after Bachelet's resignation, and Kaiser as the standard-bearer of the radical right. Although analysts see Kaiser as unlikely to win in the second round, his strategy could be similar to Boric's in 2021, where he changed his message at the end to win undecided voters. Tohá may have a key opportunity in case Kaiser makes it to the second round, and as in the past, it will all depend on moderate voters.