Observando a Iberoamérica

  As in every part of the world, every president who is subject to elections has one objective: to remain in power and, if possible, to ensure that it or his project continues beyond his term of office. In a global context in which democracies are weakening and the sanctions imposed by the international community to punish those who violate the rule of law are having little effect, attempts to stay in power at the expense of institutionality are becoming more frequent. The problem is that there is no commodity boom in sight and no exceptional situation to speak of continuity or even stability. The fiscal pressure in the countries of the region is enormous, and there are still expectations of improvement on the part of a middle class that wants to be an elite and ends up fighting with its fingernails to avoid impoverishment. Revolutions are not made by the poor, but by the middle classes that are still waiting for concrete solutions, but because of exogenous variables, but also ...

  Xi's government has set an economic growth target of around 5% this year, which many economists, including those at UBS, Morgan Stanley and Nomura, say is out of reach. UBS, for example, cut its 2024 GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.9%, a figure that probably stretches the definition of "around" too far. The impact is already being felt in Latin America. In the fourth quarter, Beijing's concerns about growth will become more pronounced and we are likely to see more stimulus at a time when a complication is emerging, and that is that the fiscal situation is also deteriorating. Tax revenues and land sales revenues have declined and the pace of government bond issuance in the first seven months of the year has been slower than normal, meaning that fiscal policy has been a drag on growth rather than a stimulus. Further fiscal easing will be needed to achieve the growth target of around 5%. Against this backdrop, Bank of America economists see a "small chance" o...

  What could happen if Kamala wins? Kamala will seek alliances with countries to achieve specific goals. Immigration will be key, especially Venezuelans, Colombians and other Latin American and Asian nationalities coming across the southern border. His administration will be challenged, as it is now, by the new patterns and types of immigration associated with violence. Security is already a key issue linked to these migratory phenomena in American public opinion. In this sense, the Venezuelan issue will be important, always linked to the immigration issue, and Colombia could also become sensitive if Petro aggravates the situation, either linked to immigration or to drug trafficking and regional violence. Kamala's main allies in the region would be the governments of Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay. In the case of Colombia, as mentioned above, everything will depend on how the Petro government behaves. He will have some closeness with Milei, but it will be l...

  Como era de esperar, no les bastó a las fuerzas democráticas de Venezuela ganar una elección con todo en contra y demostrarlo. Faltaba siempre algo más. Tampoco los militares aprovecharon esta oportunidad para convertirse en eje de una transición agravando su situación ante la comunidad internacional e incluso el futuro del estamento militar venezolano fundado a principio del siglo XX. El chavismo, tampoco sale bien parado en todo esto. Con la insistencia de Maduro a todas luces contra un voto transversal en el que muchos chavistas optaron por Edmundo González, el movimiento político está amarrado a la futura debacle de Maduro. Este post parte de una certeza que venimos manifestando luego de observar por décadas a Venezuela y el chavismo: Maduro no podrá mejorar la situación económica y material del país en ninguno de los sentidos. Difícilmente podemos equivocarnos tomando en cuenta el estado de desinstitucionalización que implica su estilo de gestión, su personalidad y la de s...