Latin America: when climate change kills democracy

 

As in every part of the world, every president who is subject to elections has one objective: to remain in power and, if possible, to ensure that it or his project continues beyond his term of office.

In a global context in which democracies are weakening and the sanctions imposed by the international community to punish those who violate the rule of law are having little effect, attempts to stay in power at the expense of institutionality are becoming more frequent.

The problem is that there is no commodity boom in sight and no exceptional situation to speak of continuity or even stability. The fiscal pressure in the countries of the region is enormous, and there are still expectations of improvement on the part of a middle class that wants to be an elite and ends up fighting with its fingernails to avoid impoverishment. Revolutions are not made by the poor, but by the middle classes that are still waiting for concrete solutions, but because of exogenous variables, but also because of the inability to implement concrete investment plans for decades, the economic impact of climate change is aggravating their situation.

It is true that this is a global problem, but in the case of Latin America, no more than in Africa or the Mediterranean, abrupt climatic changes generate poverty and material losses, because the basis of its energy matrix is hydroelectric and hydrocarbons are expensive, while renewable energies are far from being a solution, precisely because of the intermittency caused by the climate. But there are also infrastructure problems in a continent with few land, port or airport communications networks. From a simple protest to landslides caused by rain or destruction by fire, supply chains can be affected. Supply chains that, incidentally, are watching the future of the United States and China, as well as relocation efforts between the West and China.

The paradox is that Latin America has always been at the forefront of sustainability, making the most of its hydroelectric potential, but as with other renewable sources, climate change is affecting the activation of this potential, as well as corruption in the updating of infrastructure in line with economic and population growth.

Climate change, corruption and the delay in upgrading capacity to deal with the effects of climate change can erode the social base that makes democracy possible. In other words, it may impoverish citizens even more and make them more willing to listen to the voice of tyrannical candidates. This was already happening without climate change, and even more so with it.