Impact of the U.S. Elections on Latin America

 


What could happen if Kamala wins?

Kamala will seek alliances with countries to achieve specific goals.

Immigration will be key, especially Venezuelans, Colombians and other Latin American and Asian nationalities coming across the southern border.

His administration will be challenged, as it is now, by the new patterns and types of immigration associated with violence.

Security is already a key issue linked to these migratory phenomena in American public opinion. In this sense, the Venezuelan issue will be important, always linked to the immigration issue, and Colombia could also become sensitive if Petro aggravates the situation, either linked to immigration or to drug trafficking and regional violence.

Kamala's main allies in the region would be the governments of Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay. In the case of Colombia, as mentioned above, everything will depend on how the Petro government behaves.

He will have some closeness with Milei, but it will be lukewarm.

His diplomatic style will be much more direct and aggressive than Biden's, and as a good ex-prosecutor he will be more inclined to achieve concrete goals and demand results than to negotiate or wait.

It will not be an administration that is complacent with troublemakers. It will be alert to the activities of China, Russia and Iran.

 


What could happen if Trump wins?

Trump's style is already known. A mixture of "confrontational" with transactional and, in the case of Latin America, little and/or disorderly attention.

He will have a serious problem with Mexico. Sheinbaum will not be to his liking and the same will happen with Lula in Brazil. Trump has reached agreements with AMLO because AMLO proposed to him the business of going forward as a true border of the U.S., that is, using Mexico as a border police. However, if Sheinbaum does not do the same and try his best to like Trump, a redominated misogynist, the relations will not be productive.

With Trump you must negotiate and always give something in return. Maduro knows this. It is possible that Maduro and Trump will negotiate with Putin's help, but Maduro will have to comply. If he does not, he will get a harsh response from Trump. The problem everyone knows is that Maduro is not complying with the agreements.

He will also have problems with Petro, Boluarte (more with the Chinese in Chancay Port) and Boric.

He will have as friendly governments Argentina, Ecuador (if Noboa remains in power), El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic. Very weak cards that would make him forget everything except Argentina in the face of so much weakness. In fact, he could be a savior for Milei.

Immigration will always be the central issue. Then China and Iran. Not so much Russia, which will be a kind of shepherd or mediator with Petro and Lula, as well as with Maduro.

For some, if Donald Trump wins in November, Latin America should be prepared for another resurrection of the Monroe Doctrine, with real implications for everything from investment and technology to the region's relationship with China. It can be done with China and Iran, but not so much with Russia.



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