Observando a Iberoamérica

  More than a few direct or on-the-ground observers in Brazil admit that Brazilian politics seem to have calmed down considerably compared to the years leading up to the 2022 presidential elections. This is evident in the press, where personal attacks between prominent political figures are less frequent, and there is more room for relatively tolerable debates. As bolsonarismo has been neutralized by the criminal investigations, a détente has returned between the country's two poles. This does not mean that polarization has disappeared, but rather that it is taking a break. Economically and institutionally, this is beneficial for all parties. Lula knows that his government is still "very far" from what he promised and that there is no reason to have 100% popularity. He said all this in the heat of the Quaest and Ipec polls, which show an increase in the negative evaluation of his government. In his own words: "I am absolutely sure that there is no reason for the ...

Short of a coup by the military high command in Venezuela, the illegitimate Maduro regime is expected to continue. He will not hold free elections. He will engage in fraud. All the polls show that the will of the Venezuelans is to vote for a candidate, but mainly against Maduro because he has been in power for 12 years and has not improved the situation on the ground, especially in the economy and public services. The people of Venezuela, especially the youth, want economic, political and social freedoms, and Maduro's regime, which is preparing to create a dynasty after 2024, does not offer them that. What will happen then? The first thing will be fraud, further isolation and socio-economic failure, which will drive more emigration. Maduro's policies, not sanctions, are the cause of Venezuelan emigration. His attempts to govern have been futile. He and his team are incompetent, corrupt and effective only in violating human rights as a function of their vocation to rule for ...

  China is trying to circumvent U.S. restrictions in several technological areas, and in Latin America, Mexico and Brazil are serving that purpose. Chinese auto parts manufacturers are joining the wave of companies setting up shop in Mexico to help Tesla and others produce vehicles destined for the U.S. market. According to preliminary data from Mexico's domestic auto parts industry, the value of Chinese auto parts manufactured in Mexico and exported to the United States reached $1.1 billion in 2023, up 15 percent from the previous year. Last year, there were 33 Chinese auto parts manufacturers registered in Mexico, 18 of which exported to the U.S. In fact, Tesla CEO Elon Musk invited Chinese suppliers to replicate the local supply chain of its Shanghai Gigafactory in Mexico. For some observers, it is a story of how the U.S. government's trade rebalancing policy has solutions or shortcuts for the ICT and automotive industries.   That is not enough, and Latin America, par...

  La criminalidad en la región siempre ha tenido un peso político notable ya no como problema, sino como actor clave. Cada vez que hay elecciones en México o Colombia, por ejemplo, hay incidencia en los resultados de parte de estas bandas criminales. Los cuerpos irregulares de antaño, de la guerra fría, todavía conservan sus vestuarios, pero operan dualmente en términos criminales cada vez más afincados en la ciudad como ocurre en las capitales departamentales de Colombia. Hay países que han sido recientemente sorprendidos por la dinámica criminal. Lo que no esperan porque solo se afronta el desafío desde la perspectiva policial, es que la criminalidad con el paso de los años se hace más violenta e instrumental de fines políticos, bien sea como factor insurreccional o bien como parte de operaciones especiales negras. También ponen candidatos. Nada nuevo en México, Centroamérica o Colombia, pero ya comienza a expandirse a otras latitudes. De la mano de Insight Crime , entramos e...