Venezuela and what will happen in 2024

Short of a coup by the military high command in Venezuela, the illegitimate Maduro regime is expected to continue. He will not hold free elections. He will engage in fraud. All the polls show that the will of the Venezuelans is to vote for a candidate, but mainly against Maduro because he has been in power for 12 years and has not improved the situation on the ground, especially in the economy and public services. The people of Venezuela, especially the youth, want economic, political and social freedoms, and Maduro's regime, which is preparing to create a dynasty after 2024, does not offer them that.

What will happen then?

The first thing will be fraud, further isolation and socio-economic failure, which will drive more emigration. Maduro's policies, not sanctions, are the cause of Venezuelan emigration. His attempts to govern have been futile. He and his team are incompetent, corrupt and effective only in violating human rights as a function of their vocation to rule for life. He functions more like a criminal gang with hegemonic aspirations than a dictatorial government.

But even within Chavismo there are doubts about Maduro's dominance. What is thought in the majority of the country (Maduro has less than 15% support among voters who are optimistic) is transversal. Chavistas think almost the same as their opponents. They may feel rejection for the leadership of the opposition, but they detest Maduro, his continuity to 18 years of government and much more that his heir is his son, like a North Korean dynasty. Within Chavismo, and especially within military Chavismo, they do not agree with this future. Hence Maduro's nervousness and his need to generate terror inside and outside Venezuela.

This leads us to another scenario that may not happen this year or right after the elections, and that is the collapse of Maduro due to lack of military support. That is why Maduro insists on controlling his military and terrorizing them inside and outside the country, ordering assassinations abroad or imprisoning retired or retired military in Venezuela who have not really done anything. Maduro just wants to create fear.

Maduro's continuity is not guaranteed without terror. And that is what will come in the next few years. Within Venezuela there are three types of reactions in general regardless of ideology: 1) paralyze and adapt to Maduro's rule, they are the most, 2) rebel, they are the least, although more and more in Chavismo and that worries because unlike the opposition, a Chavista does not take hostages or negotiate, they resort to violence without scruples, 3) flee and that is what we see with emigration.

On the other hand, Maduro does not have many options or incentives to relinquish power. If he decides to surrender, he will face legal or physical persecution from his internal and external enemies. Nor does he see himself in exile in some Middle Eastern country, Russia or China, knowing that he is being financially fleeced by his partners. His power lies in creating the illusion that he controls Venezuela. So, he will cling to power until the end. This indicates that the only way to seek this end is through violence, although this can also generate major problems, since it is known how it begins, but not how it ends. That is why most Venezuelans want a peaceful and electoral solution. Maduro will avoid this by closing this valve and everything will depend on his capacity to dominate and the capacity of resistance of those who do not want the Maduro dynasty. Without clean elections this time, which everyone in Venezuela wants to vote in, the road to violence is open if any kind of positive change is wanted. The other options will be to get used to this kind of "Haitianization" that Maduro's rule entails (i.e., impoverishment and patrimonialism violence), or to escape.

What do I recommend for investors?

If there is no democracy and rule of law in Venezuela, do not risk your money in this economy. It would be like betting on a "Barbecue" business in Port-au-Prince. Maduro and his team do not even respect those who invest without scruples because of the reputational risk, and those who invest can only benefit if they get involved in the illegal businesses of Maduro and his team, without this meaning loyalty or gratitude from his regime. Not even criminals are safe. Be warned.