Brazil: Lula, attrition, and polarization

 

More than a few direct or on-the-ground observers in Brazil admit that Brazilian politics seem to have calmed down considerably compared to the years leading up to the 2022 presidential elections. This is evident in the press, where personal attacks between prominent political figures are less frequent, and there is more room for relatively tolerable debates. As bolsonarismo has been neutralized by the criminal investigations, a détente has returned between the country's two poles. This does not mean that polarization has disappeared, but rather that it is taking a break. Economically and institutionally, this is beneficial for all parties.

Lula knows that his government is still "very far" from what he promised and that there is no reason to have 100% popularity. He said all this in the heat of the Quaest and Ipec polls, which show an increase in the negative evaluation of his government.

In his own words: "I am absolutely sure that there is no reason for the Brazilian people to give me 100% popularity, because we are still far from what we promised. I know what I promised the people, I know the commitments I made to the people" (...) "So far, we have prepared the land, we have plowed it, we have fertilized it, we have planted the seeds. We have covered the seed. This is the year in which we will begin to reap what we have sown.

In an interview, Lula said something curious, and it refers to political polarization. For him, political polarization is a global phenomenon and that, in the case of Brazil, it is developing around two people: himself and Jair Bolsonaro. The president also affirmed that the LP is an "eminent electoral legend". On the other hand, "I am not worried about polarization, because Brazil has been polarized for a long time between the PSDB and the PT. It was like that in 1989, it was like that in 1994, it was like that in 1998, it was like that in 2002, 2000. Now Brazil is polarized between two people, because in reality they are two people, they are not even two parties, because my party exists, your party does not exist. It is an eminently electoral party".

It is a didactic statement and it can also be a mistake. It has the need to reflect the opposite in a loser or a loser. Bolsonaro does not have the level now that he pretends to grant him, and the insult to the PL could cause him problems for the future. Lula has a formidable enemy in the conservative sector and it is not Bolsonaro who is capitalizing on this tendency. He is just another player.

In any case, Lula is not giving up the possibility of running again in 2026. Haddad can wait a little longer. Bolsonaro still has his wife on the bench and Brazil's conservatives have other candidates. It is a sector with greater potential than the PT to come to power.




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