Observando a Iberoamérica

  The Trump administration's economic policies are generating uncertainty in global markets, especially in the dominance of the dollar. While a weaker dollar could benefit US manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit, it could also boost inflation and make rate cuts by the Federal Reserve more difficult. At the same time, increased military spending and fiscal easing in Europe have strengthened the euro, altering global monetary dynamics.   The intensifying US trade war has had significant economic effects, with rising tariffs and increased uncertainty affecting US growth. In contrast, optimism about the European economy has boosted eurozone stocks and bonds, contributing to the dollar's depreciation against the euro. However, the effectiveness of these policies remains in question, as the growing US budget deficit could keep Treasury yields high, putting upward pressure on the dollar.   Economic projections reflect more moderate growth in the United States and the...

  Evelyn Matthei has to deal with the challenge of strengthening her position as leader of the Chilean right-wing. At the same time, Johannes Kaiser is gaining support because of his radical and disruptive message. Although Matthei would be better able to win an eventual second round against the left, she must first beat Kaiser and José Antonio Kast in the first round. Kaiser has a lot of support from people who want big changes in Chile, especially when it comes to free markets and order. Matthei is seen as a moderate who likes to find common ground. However, she is not as popular as Sebastián Piñera and does not have as much money, so she needs to make people think that she is the right person to represent the traditional right.   Johannes Kaiser has become more popular because of his right-wing views. He is against immigration, believes in smaller government and supports gun ownership. He became more popular after the constitutional process launched in 2019 failed, as it ...

  Since Trump became president, everything has become more uncertain. But the world and the region have already realized that the best plan is to wait and see what happens. Latin America is starting to move away from the US and towards China and Russia. The EU is finding it hard to move closer together because of the influence of these two Eurasian powers, but cultural links and people's dislike of Trump's policies might help to reduce this sense of estrangement. Now is a good time to reach out to the region, but in the end, managers of investments and finances focus on the fundamentals. Many changes are happening: 1) The 'Trumpist authoritarian contagion' (something similar to the 'Bukelist contagion') is spreading, and Putin is taking advantage of this to weaken elites by making Trump the new alpha male in the region, 2) the halting of the flow of migrants northwards and the restructuring of transnational criminal gangs to deal with new challenges, 3) chan...