Venezuela post 10E

 

Venezuela has confirmed that it is a country under tyranny. I don't like the term 'dictatorship' because it has no legal basis. If we look more closely at these issues and move away from the American political science view that these problems don't matter, 'tyranny' fits better. We already knew that Maduro's regime was a tyranny, but this certificate was missing. The Venezuelans' insistence on a peaceful electoral process delayed the delivery of this certificate, but it is a step forward. The current media is tough on past tyrants and situations but tends to ignore current ones unless they are against left-wing politics. It took the Venezuelans 22 years to convince the Western world that Chavismo was an oppressive, undemocratic regime. The way it has undermined democracies from within has already become an example for many would-be tyrants, no matter what their beliefs are.

What's going on in Venezuela?

1. The opposition has the most votes, but they are not strong: In the 28-J elections, Venezuelan people living in other countries did not vote. Maduro said that Venezuelan emigrants couldn't vote. If Venezuelans living abroad had been allowed to vote, the ratio of votes would have changed from 7 to 3 to 9 to 1. While 25% of the Venezuelan population still support Chavismo, 90% of people are against Maduro. If another Chavista candidate had run, perhaps the competition would have been closer for the opposition. The opposition's problem is not new. It began in 1989 and is the lack of strong political parties that represent the people and have a strong organisation in place, as was the case in most of the 20th century. This is what led to the end of democracy, and the arrival of Chavism was like a disease spreading throughout the country. The opposition still has no strong political parties. But political scientists and analysts who live in Venezuela will tell you that they do. They have to keep up this illusion, but the truth is that there are no organised opposition political parties. The strength of the opposition is based on a feeling of rejection. And even though María Corina Machado has created a powerful narrative, it hasn't been made any stronger. There is a lack of organisational work and motivational teaching. If she weren't arrested, exiled or assassinated, she could continue this work. She is a brave leader who didn't have time to build a party. The other parties are empty shells. Political personalism
2. Chavismo is strong, but also weak: It still has military strength, even though most of the armed forces are against Maduro. But the reason for its military strength is its counter-intelligence organs. It's basically a tyrannical regime. Maduro is hated by civilians and the military, but because the civilian population is disorganized, the military will not be able to overthrow him. There is a chance that the military could decide to replace Maduro like Mugabe did, and start a transition where the country is led by someone more powerful. This is why Maduro is so paranoid. Before, he was gambling with his job. Now he is risking his life and, with it, another detested and feared being like Diosdado Cabello. Both are targets for military Chavismo, which is going nowhere with such leadership. There is also a feeling of wanting to change the government in civilian and military circles. Maduro has blocked this. If Maduro were a good leader, maybe things would get better for him. But he's not a good manager and is a danger to his allies by getting rid of them. It's important to remember that we're not in the 1960s anymore. Maduro isn't a charismatic leader, and the Chavista ideology has lost its value, especially when you see how the leaders live in luxury. The remaining nationalists are the most upset about the country's destruction under Maduro. He is trying to exploit this nationalist side with the issue of interference, but the nationalists know that the only way to be strong is not through isolation, but through working together with other countries. So, they are thinking about a plan to gradually change things with the help of other powerful capitalist countries, even if that means letting Maduro go. Whether or not the opposition can succeed will depend on how well organised they are. But the fact that Maduro lost the presidency is something that 90% of the population and the international community will be happy about. If you look closely, overthrowing Maduro is a win-win manoeuvre, even for the armed forces who support him. But first he had to be sworn in and removed from power. It would be dangerous for the Chavista military elites if Edmundo and María Corina were allowed to arrive. The military are plotting against Maduro, and this is just the start.
3. The role of the international community: the international community is weak. Whether Eurasian or Western. In the case of Venezuela, it is not only weak, but also uninterested. They have had enough of the Venezuelans. The international community has done what it can, but it thinks this is a Venezuelan problem, and maybe the wisest decision. Going into Venezuela would mean more of the Chavismo regime and the Venezuelan opposition leadership would have to deal with their own problems. Venezuelans need to grow up and get more politically mature if they are going to find a solution. María Corina Machado has tried, as have many others, but it has not been easy. It costs to build. It's easy to destroy things. The opposition and Venezuelans have fought against tyranny with blood and sweat, but it has not been enough because of the reasons already mentioned. They will keep fighting, and the international community will help them. But there is also the Trump factor. There is a chance that Trump will be foolish or consider negotiating with Maduro to get a hundred immigrants out and rescue a dozen Americans, but that will not be acceptable. Trump doesn't care about Venezuelan oil, and neither does the rest of the world. In fact, if he lets it stay with Maduro, it'll keep oil prices high and help American oil production. Trump's attitude, barring some sudden turnaround resulting from fierce repression by Maduro, will be more one of indifference, but keeping up the pressure. He will take away licences. He will follow tankers and seize cargo. Trump is similar to Reagan and Monroe in the way he thinks about international relations. I would also add a 'tiktok' version.

What will happen?

I never thought Maduro would last, ever since he cheated in the 2013 election. I was wrong. He has certainly survived, not least because of his talent, but also because of mistakes made by the opposition. Especially when it comes to timing and the different groups working together. I still think Maduro will be removed based on the above objective conditions. I still think this. Maduro is making things worse for himself. And maybe his end is not as we imagine or wish it to be, but I still believe it is near. He doesn't have the support of democracy to rely on any more. He doesn't have the support of the people or the army. He doesn't have the support of the international community. He keeps making mistakes, and he has Cabello's support. The end will be tragic, as it usually is in these cases. Hopefully it won't take many innocent lives, but it will be tragic. I'm still betting that it won't last long, but I could be wrong. I'll leave it to you to decide.

A crazy scenario:

That Maduro gives up and gives in to Trump. This would mean letting American oil companies with low taxes into the economy in return for protection. This is unlikely, but not impossible. Trump might be willing to help because he is a fan of strongmen leaders and Maduro needs a lot of money. Against this happening are many factors: 1) Maduro doesn't want to make money in the country because that means making rivals, 2) Maduro is afraid of the nationalist Chavista group that could join with the opposition. It's also important to remember that Venezuela's oil industry has a long history of nationalism, which started in the 20th century and continued into the 21st century with the rise of Chavism (even though Chavism went against the idea of nationalism), 3) Additionally, Maduro and his team are said to be incompetent, which makes it unlikely that they would follow any agreement, even if they wanted to, 4) Finally, Trump might not be interested in Venezuelan crude oil because he wants to focus on producing and using his own oil reserves first, before focusing on green energy sources.

 

There is one more thing that foreign experts should know about Venezuela. What should you avoid when analysing Venezuela?

• One mistake is thinking that Venezuelan oil is vital to the world. It isn't.
• The global press: With a few exceptions, the people who write about Venezuela for the rest of the world are also held by the government. In exchange for exclusive stories that keep their jobs, they present a version of events that is favourable to the government. This is clear in the European and American press. We must be very careful when we read their stories and data. Read between the lines. 
• Venezuelan experts who live in Venezuela and some abroad: They usually have a political agenda and misinform. The worst of these analysts live in Venezuela. They are all paid by businessmen controlled by Chavismo. They set agendas and dictate opinion. Then there are the opposition analysts, who also have their own agenda and are only interested in creating narratives that fit their agenda. You should read them, but be careful. Even the information in this blog. We have a biased view, but we try to be realistic.
• Influencers of all kinds: Anyone working in Venezuela has the tyrant's permission to give a false version of events.
• The Venezuelan drama: People from Venezuela often behave in a dramatic and exaggerated way, but this doesn't mean that they're not suffering. It's just part of their Caribbean character.
• Some people think Venezuelans cannot adapt, but they are actually Caribbean and Latino people who can adapt to circumstances. This is true whether it is Maduro staying in power or a change of regime. If an American warship assassinates the Chavista leadership or Chavismo assassinates Machado, the country will not go to hell in great protests and civil wars. People might get angry for a short time, but they also know how to adapt. It's just what the country does.
• Thinking that Maduro's regime is a political regime: This is wrong. It is a criminal regime, and it is not biased. It is a proven fact. It's made up of criminals of all kinds, from drug traffickers to human traffickers. This is how they got into power. If they lose power, they are either killed by their colleagues or go to prison.
• Thinking that all the opposition is honest and capable: But they have shown that this is not true. It is important to tell the difference between people in politics who just want power, and people who really want to make things better. In Venezuela, the former are more successful in public. The latter end up in prison. Since 1973, Venezuelan political leaders have been rather superficial, boring and have been working with experienced criminals. It's best to be careful around them. This is especially true when they make a big deal out of things.
• Saying that Venezuelans are like criminals or have extreme political beliefs: Venezuelans in general are careful with money and good at their jobs. They are also very friendly and well-meaning. They can adapt. They can be a bit temperamental, but they can adapt. People from Venezuela and people who are not from Venezuela are now victims who are trying to stop being victims. They are trying to overcome the emotional impact of being controlled by a cruel government and to get ahead with their talent. He is no different from so many other immigrants who are also escaping violence.