Lula in a bind

 


The EU-Mercosur agreements are the result of Germany's need to secure markets for its struggling industry. Lula needs to boost his leadership after the enlargement of the BRICS and the Trump-Milei friendship. He can do this by raising his profile as the leader of a Mercosur that is awakening again. Both sides of the Atlantic are working to form an alliance to counterbalance China and the United States. If both blocs take up some of Milei's suggestions, they could have a win-win relationship. In the short term, this does not seem likely, but in the long term, it will be of enormous strategic value.

This type of agreement and search for trade interdependence between democracies, which does not exclude Chinese investments in infrastructure, but uses them for the benefit of the Atlantic, strengthens the Western democratic Latin American institutionality that is more willing to comply with sustainable trade protocols. This route is more expensive but safer than the Chinese one. If Europe keeps going this way, it will gain many more allies in the region than the United States and China, which are fighting for global dominance. This has happened before. In the early 1900s, the Southern Cone was the breadbasket and financier of Europe's recovery. It could happen again. Additionally, Brazil is in crisis with two important neighbors in Latin America. Argentina and Venezuela.

Lula uses summits to position himself. These are Lula's best chances for foreign policy success despite the challenges. Now it's Trump's turn.

Trump is an important reference for Brazil's right-wing opposition. This could make Lula look for more support from China and Russia, which would make global politics more divided. Lula helped create the BRICS in 2006, but Brazil is not happy about the recent expansion of the group, which has grown from four members to nine.

BRICS are more influential than ever. But the group is becoming more anti-Western because some members, like Iran, are authoritarian. The Syria issue might make Iran and Russia look bad, and Brazil might gain some ground, but the BRICS expansion has made Lula less important. Lula seems lost and ineffective. This makes him think third parties are no good too. He is getting worse now he is ill. Maybe he's finished, but if he carries on, he'll just get worse.

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