Sheinbaum: The New Mexican Empress or Just Another Puppet?

 

Morena, the party founded by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and its allies, the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), won a qualified two-thirds majority in the Chamber of Deputies and a simple majority in the Senate. They are still fighting.

Source: taken from El Universal

A triumph was expected, but not so overwhelming. Especially when it comes to control of Congress. The Mexican Constitution states that a qualified majority in the Senate requires 85 senators. As for the Chamber of Deputies, based on the minimum of the ranks presented in the quick count, they would have 372 seats, i.e. they would exceed 2/3 of the Chamber. Should the new president of Mexico have this possibility, she can:

1. Control the appointments to the Supreme Court (Sheinbaum has been a fierce opponent since 2023, after the annulment of AMLO's electoral reform), that is, now she will be able to break the balance that existed in the judiciary.
2. Thus, the alliance supporting Sheinbaum could approve constitutional reforms and appointments to the INE, IFT and other autonomous bodies. In short, she could be the most powerful president since the hegemonic times of the PRI, and she could act like it, because Morena is the daughter of the most rancid PRI. That is to say, more state interventionist and more anti-capitalist. With qualified majorities in both chambers of Congress, the reforms proposed to the autonomous bodies, among other constitutional reforms, that she sent on February 5 could be approved even before Sheinbaum takes over the Mexican government next October 1, since legislators will take office a month earlier.
3. It is possible that AMLO, followed by Sheinbaum, will end up eliminating autonomous bodies such as the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policies (CONEVAL), the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), the National Commission for the Continuous Improvement of Education (MEJOREDU), the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information and Protection of Personal Data (INAI), the Federal Economic Competition Commission (Cofece) and the Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT). Despite their shortcomings, they are all key to maintaining a balanced market policy.

However, some nuances are possible:

• We must not forget the governors and the real power factors that still have weight. They can serve as a counterweight, and even drug trafficking, which requires money laundering, is a guarantee of the free market, but this will not prevent disruptive institutional changes, but everything will depend on the ability of Sheinbaum, Morena and AMLO not to withdraw completely, to keep their governors and business allies centralized in the old PRI style.
• The weight of the United States will be the key to keeping some things immovable.
• She is a Mexican woman with knowledge of the multi-layered Mexican terrain and all that this implies, which, without detracting from the social and environmental aspects that are her priority, means pragmatism and a demand for clarity in her objectives. If there is anyone who governs well in Mexico, it is women, despite the macho culture. They are the ones who rule, as in many parts of the Hispanic world and in general, in homes and businesses, but when they go out into the realm of power, they are much more executive and effective than men, who are more given to vanities of all kinds. If you are clear and focused, she will listen to you.
• She will not stop being leftist, with a more sincere woke touch than Petro, but more in the vein of Lula. He will not go against the morals of Mexicans, although he flirts slightly with LGTBI woke causes and broadly with non-radical feminism, but in this woke wave she will be carried away by environmentalism. This is her weakness or his lifelong obsession.
• She will also be a rock against AMLO because she avoids confirmation bias due to her scientific background (her use of the face mask during the pandemic against AMLO's recommendation is an example). When they go with scientific data, without abandoning the ideological component, it opens a space for dialogue. Since he was a young leftist, he has always opted for the electoral route.
• If she is not convinced that she has made a mistake, it is difficult to get her to back down. Like any politician, she has her traits of arrogance and determination. In this she is within the norm.

What can you expect from Sheinbaum?

It is already a cliché to say that Sheinbaum is making history, but it bears repeating, and she could be the key to a new hegemonic era in Mexico if she gets it right, combining the social with the productive. She is not expected to be the bogeyman of business, but if she does not make the right decisions based on ideology, she can create serious problems and a lot of mistrust.