EMC and the setback for peace in Colombia

 

If the Clan del Golfo has an operational structure that competes with the ELN, the Central General Staff of the FARC ( “Estado Mayor Central o EMC” a way of distinguishing it from the Second Marquetalia, but in essence both are the FARC that continued after Santos' fake peace), has undergone rapid territorial expansion under Petro, although it had already gained momentum under Duque.

The FARC's Central General Staff (EMC) is an armed organization made up of dissident fronts of former FARC guerrillas and new recruits. It is led by Néstor Gregorio Vera, better known as "Iván Mordisco.

It currently has 2,800 men in arms. Colombian military intelligence estimates that they have 3,860 members. It has influence in 234 municipalities, mainly in the south of the country. Its main financial and military strength is in Cauca, with the Western Bloc. Financially, they control drug trafficking. They also live from illegal gold mining and extortion.

So far, they have no agenda for dialogue. Petro's government has stated that it will not renegotiate the 2016 peace agreement and wants to address the issue of drug trafficking to achieve the transformation of regions such as the Micay Canyon. The EMC wants the participation of communities, especially peasants, in the process to be paramount. There is no clarity on what to do with the members of the EMC who signed the 2016 Peace Accords and have not complied with them.

The parties extended the ceasefire until July 15, 2023. But Petro suspended it in three departments: Cauca, Valle del Cauca, and Nariño, as they continue to assassinate social leaders.

According to military intelligence, this is the second armed group that has grown the most in numbers in 2023, about 9%. It has consolidated in its areas of control and has expanded in Huila to create a corridor of mobility. It must be considered that a significant part of the violence in Ecuador is the responsibility of EMC activities.

What does this mean?

First, investors need to prepare themselves for the fact that the supply chains and strategic infrastructure of Colombia's foreign and domestic trade could be at risk in the coming years, and even more so if Petro leaves power and rejoins the opposition, as he will use the civilian side of these movements to destabilize the country, as he did in the recent past before becoming president.

The reality is that the Colombian state is regressing to the 1990s in terms of security. What was difficult to eradicate under Uribe is coming back with impunity and with a subtle structure that is being built in the cities. It is a monster with a thousand heads that can explode a conflict of greater magnitude as soon as it feels strengthened. This group, EMC, together with the ELN (with a large extension in Venezuela) and the Gulf Clan, are taking advantage of the total peace to expand. It is expected that in two years there will be greater and more widespread violence on the part of these groups if Petro does not implement security measures as expected.

Municipalities in which the EMC is active



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