Comienza Observando Iberoamérica 

Por Martín Durán


La verdad nunca había pensado en escribir sobre Iberoamérica. Siempre lo he hecho en términos de informes mucho más reservados, pero con el tiempo he decidido compartir lo que pienso sobre la región e iniciar en lo posible una red de discusión sobre temas de una región marcada por múltiples desafíos. 

Trataré de ser lo más breve y consecuente posible. 

Comenzamos....

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The Trumpian cognitive labyrinth in Latin America

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  Since Trump became president, everything has become more uncertain. But the world and the region have already realized that the best plan is to wait and see what happens. Latin America is starting to move away from the US and towards China and Russia. The EU is finding it hard to move closer together because of the influence of these two Eurasian powers, but cultural links and people's dislike of Trump's policies might help to reduce this sense of estrangement. Now is a good time to reach out to the region, but in the end, managers of investments and finances focus on the fundamentals. Many changes are happening: 1) The 'Trumpist authoritarian contagion' (something similar to the 'Bukelist contagion') is spreading, and Putin is taking advantage of this to weaken elites by making Trump the new alpha male in the region, 2) the halting of the flow of migrants northwards and the restructuring of transnational criminal gangs to deal with new challenges, 3) chan...
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Latin America and its trade relationship with a punished China

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  The Trump administration's recent tariff policies on China could reduce Chinese GDP growth by between 1% and 2.5% in the coming years, depending on the duration and intensity of the trade war. This is due to China's dependence on exports, which represent a crucial part of its economy. However, China has shown resilience in the past, and measures such as increasing exports to other markets or domestic stimulus could partially mitigate the impact. Increased exports to China tend to generate higher fiscal revenues for Latin American governments, especially in commodity-dependent countries. According to estimates, for every percentage point of Chinese GDP growth, emerging economies such as those in Latin America could gain up to 0.5 percentage points of growth. Thus, Chinese growth of 5 per cent in the first quarter could translate into an indirect boost of up to 2.5 per cent in the GDP of some Latin American countries, contributing to a projected regional growth of 2.5 per cen...
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Latin America and the evolution of Trump impact

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  A trade war, or even a bluff, makes things uncertain, stops investments and affects the region's growth. On the one hand, a typical bluff/bravado of a pampered NYC real estate entrepreneur or on the other hand a tactic of a larger strategy of dismantling the liberal order. However you interpret it, Trump is here to do harm and it is not an ideological trench position, as there is ample historical evidence that such breakaway leaderships, born out of fear of loss of power as well as those who want their space (Thucydides' Trap), often generate more trauma than benefits to the international order and even to the economies and societies under their jurisdiction. To some extent, it has not been surprising, but it always generates a minimum of panic to see the devil arrive and the region responds in the three logical ways one usually responds to these challenges: 1) freeze, do not breathe (Brazil), 2) make a gesture of dignity and then freeze and/or retreat (Colombia and Mexico ...
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