Observando a Iberoamérica

  The Trump administration's recent tariff policies on China could reduce Chinese GDP growth by between 1% and 2.5% in the coming years, depending on the duration and intensity of the trade war. This is due to China's dependence on exports, which represent a crucial part of its economy. However, China has shown resilience in the past, and measures such as increasing exports to other markets or domestic stimulus could partially mitigate the impact. Increased exports to China tend to generate higher fiscal revenues for Latin American governments, especially in commodity-dependent countries. According to estimates, for every percentage point of Chinese GDP growth, emerging economies such as those in Latin America could gain up to 0.5 percentage points of growth. Thus, Chinese growth of 5 per cent in the first quarter could translate into an indirect boost of up to 2.5 per cent in the GDP of some Latin American countries, contributing to a projected regional growth of 2.5 per cen...

  There is a significant risk of social explosion in Ecuador in the next two years, regardless of who wins the presidency. The combination of an unprecedented security crisis (homicide rate of 39 per 100,000 in 2024), economic inequality, youth unemployment (15–24-year-olds with 11% unemployment according to INEC), and distrust of institutions (Congress with 10% approval rating) creates a breeding ground for discontent. The militarization of security under Noboa and Correa's history of polarization under Gonzalez could exacerbate latent tensions. However, the risk is not imminent unless specific catalysts are present, and its likelihood varies depending on the winner. Should Daniel Noboa win, the risk is greater in the medium term (2026-2027), if his ‘mano dura’ approach to crime continues to prioritise repression over social solutions. His policy has reduced violence (homicides fell from 47.2 to 39 per 100,000 between 2023 and 2024), but cases such as the murder of four minors i...