Observando a Iberoamérica

The key variables for the Venezuelan elections on July 28th are: The level of participation, since a turnout of more than 70% would be an indicator of a victory for the opposition. The permanence or not of the current opposition card or candidate, since although there is the possibility of a last-minute change, even if illegal, if it happens then it will affect the turnout and the effective vote, affecting the performance of the opposition. The opposition's ability to mobilize voters, especially in times when Chavismo applies Slowdown Operation. The performance of the electoral process and its irregularities, since in theory the machines have batteries for 10 hours in case of blackout (Maduro's threat). During the voting, and especially after it is over and the results are announced, the key is the ability to mobilize against fraud or an unfavorable result for any of the candidates, especially in the case of the opposition, given that Chavismo will mobilize later if it mobili...

  The crisis of credibility experienced by the Lula government in the management of public accounts and the escalation of the dollar forced his economic team to try a change of behavior at this time and to defend the revision of federal expenditures with more phase. In the last few days, President Lula ended up showing that he was not convinced of the task (prolonging the series of ups and downs observed in fiscal policy). As the comings and goings have accumulated since the beginning of the government, due to the political and electoral difficulties of each initiative launched or studied. The extension of the recipes faces a growing reason from the economy, while the options to reduce the expenses generate fears of an increase of the unpopularity indexes. These are too many signals. Haddad tried to maintain a balanced agenda by publicly launching disciplinary measures, but in the end, he was defeated by the lack of support in Congress and within the government itself. Lula is ...