Observando a Iberoamérica

  The month of November will be a period of defining limits and decisions. Xi Jinping is preparing to visit Peru for an APEC summit with the objective of strengthening ties with the Latin American Pacific Rim by fostering closer relations with Colombia and Mexico. However, these countries are cautious about the potential impact on their relations with the United States, which is entering a pivotal period of elections that will shape global geopolitics. If Kamala is elected, the status quo will be maintained, but Latin American governments will continue to pursue rapprochement with China. In the event of a Trump victory, the outcome will be dependent on his strategy. Specifically, it will be crucial to ascertain whether he will adopt a conciliatory approach towards China, seeking mutually beneficial reshoring initiatives, or whether he will adopt a more assertive stance. At this point in time, it is not possible to determine who will emerge victorious. The competition is inten...

  Real GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1951 and 2023 says a lot about the region's cyclical dynamics, but where the impact is really felt is in the average of 0.8% over the last 10 years. This is even lower than the so-called "lost decade" of the 1980s. Latin America grew strongly between 1951 and 1970 as a result of the post-war recovery. It could be argued that, as it is today, the driving force at that time was raw materials, but also a dynamic of import substitution and industrialisation driven by strong social investment in Keynesian terms and elites willing to build large-scale infrastructures. The oil crises, even in Venezuela, were not due to a lack of resources but rather to macroeconomic criteria. They led to what would later become the crises of the 1980s, which some have called the lost decade. Since then, the cycles have been dizzying, with the most recent being the end of the commodity cycle/great crisis of 2009 and the pandemic. Th...